Driving Forces Cards

Driving forces are compiled through multiple rounds of interviews with key stakeholders, to ensure that the scenarios as a whole address the key concerns of each group. The insights from these interviews are then clustered together into broadly-defined driving forces, which contain both predetermined elements and critical uncertainties.

• “Predetermined” driving forces are likely to remain stable and predictable.

• “Critical uncertainties” are driving forces for which a range of plausible future trajectories exists.

Driving Forces 2040 Cards

The Driving Forces (DF) deck is intended to spark conversations on key forces of change shaping the operating environment in 2040, and possible ways they may play out. Apart from 17 DFs, it includes five Wildcards—surprising events that would have game-changing implications if they came to pass. These explorations are not predictions, nor are they exhaustive. Rather, they offer alternative ways to think about the future.

The deck functions as a starting point to develop a broad understanding of plausible ways the operating environment might change. It can be used in workshops or team retreats to stress-test public policy or organisational strategy, to prioritise issues for further research, or simply as a reminder of the need for long-term thinking.

The deck was developed by the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) in 2021, in consultation with local and international subject matter experts.

Views expressed may not reflect those of CSF, nor the Singapore government.

A World Reaching Inflection Point (1MB)

The lines between DFs are often arbitrary, and CSF has articulated five cross-DF themes that reflect how the DFs may be collectively shaping our future. The DFs may also be categorised into three clusters, each relating to a level of reality that we operate in. Some of these forces will transform our contextual realities while others will transform our daily lived realities. Mediating between the external and internal worlds, how our institutional realities evolve will also shape Singapore’s future. This article explores the cross-DF themes in greater detail, and includes a diagram of the DFs mapped across contextual, lived and institutional realities.